Recently, a consultant I know made an interesting remark:
“Germany won’t hold much longer. The EU may not maintain its current form in the next decade.”
His evidence was a vague anecdote about German restaurants disappearing due to immigration.
It was just his personal view, but it revealed a familiar assumption:
that the EU is “held together” by Germany, and that if Germany weakens, the EU must follow.
Institutionally, this does not hold.
The EU is not built around a single hegemon. It functions through a multi‑center structure: Germany shapes fiscal governance, France leads in foreign and security policy, and Eastern European states have become central in matters related to Russia.
Decision‑making in the Commission and Parliament depends on negotiation, not dominance.
What about Germany’s economy itself?
The latest confirmed data (2024) shows 0.0% real GDP growth.
Preliminary 2025 figures point to around 0.4%.
Germany is in a low‑growth phase, pressured by decarbonization, digital transition, and energy costs.
But this is not collapse.
OECD projections for 2026 expect around 1% growth.
Eurostat data shows one of Europe’s lowest unemployment rates, and the current account remains in surplus.
Germany is undergoing a difficult structural transition — nothing more.
This brings us to the broader point.
The EU has been declared “on the brink” many times — the eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, Brexit, the war in Ukraine.
Yet each crisis led not to disintegration but to institutional adjustment.
The EU’s defining feature is not fixed stability but its capacity to transform.
It is not a system that simply survives or collapses; it reorganizes itself through crises.
Seen this way, Germany’s stagnation, Eastern Europe’s rise, and France’s diplomatic role are not signs of decline.
They are part of the EU’s ongoing adaptation.
The essential question is not whether the EU will endure, but how it will continue to change.
👉 The full article is available exclusively to Medium.
Read more here:
Why “EU Collapse Narratives” Keep Returning — And What They Miss
